Strong US demand for high-tech and AI-related exports from Southeast Asia is straining intra-Asia air freight capacity as most flights to North America transit regional hubs, reports London's S&P Global.

Forwarders said congestion is already building at major airports ahead of the Lunar New Year peak. Kathy Liu of Dimerco Express Group noted that the China-plus-one production strategy, accelerated by US tariffs, is boosting intra-Asia demand and tightening capacity at hubs including Hong Kong, Taipei, Singapore, Incheon and Narita.

Tobias Hofemeier of Kuehne + Nagel said demand for cloud infrastructure logistics linked to AI growth remains strong, with Gartner forecasting 21.3 per cent growth in public cloud services in 2026. Kuehne + Nagel supplements commercial capacity with nine weekly flights from Vietnam and six from Taiwan to the US.

Analyst Rotate reported growth in direct Southeast Asia-North America flights, though much cargo still moves via hubs. Overall belly capacity will remain at 2025 levels due to aircraft delivery delays at Boeing and Airbus. The grounding of 70 MD-11 and DC-10 freighters after a crash in Kentucky has further reduced supply.

Sou Ping Chee of Hellmann Worldwide Logistics said commercial airlines provide more than 80 per cent of global capacity, which will stay tight with few new freighters arriving. He added that charter contracts expiring this year could return some capacity to the market.

Niall van de Wouw of Xeneta said AI investment supported demand in 2025 but warned of weaker signals from Chinese e-commerce. China's cross-border volumes were flat in October and November, with exports to the US down more than 50 per cent year on year, while shipments to the EU continued to grow.