Venezuela would require US$183 billion in investment over 15 years to bring crude oil production back to three million barrels per day by 2040, according to Rystad Energy, reports the American Journal of Transportation.

The consultancy said US$53 billion is needed just to keep output flat at 1.1 million bpd. Only 300,000 bpd could be restored within two to three years with limited spending. Raising production beyond 1.4 million bpd would require US$8-9 billion annually from 2026 to 2040, on top of maintenance capital.

Venezuela's national oil company PDVSA could finance part of the investment, but at least US$30-35 billion of international capital must be committed in the next three years to make the three million bpd target plausible. Rystad estimates output could reach two million bpd by 2032 and three million bpd by 2040.

Venezuela's oil history saw production peak at 3.5 million bpd in 1970 and again above three million bpd in the late 1990s. Nationalisation under Hugo Chavez in 2006 forced foreign operators to cede majority control to PDVSA, leading to asset seizures and exits by ExxonMobil, ConocoPhillips, TotalEnergies and Equinor.

Sanctions and market downturns cut output to 580,000 bpd in 2020, though production has since recovered past one million bpd. Heavy crude now accounts for 70 per cent of supply, compared with 30-40 per cent in the 1990s. Rystad said restoring production to three million bpd would require US$102 billion in upstream spending and US$81 billion for pipelines and infrastructure.