Fitch Ratings has kept a negative outlook for the global shipping sector in 2026, citing geopolitical instability and policy risks, reported Manila Times.

The agency expects slower GDP growth across major economies compared with 2025, with added downside risks from possible financial market corrections.

A key event risk is the potential resumption of Red Sea transits. While restoring access to the Suez Canal would improve safety, it would reduce ton-mile demand, effectively increasing vessel supply and putting downward pressure on freight rates.

Trade protectionism and tariff disputes are already moderating volume growth, particularly in container shipping. Fitch said new trade lanes may emerge but will not offset losses in primary routes.

Container shipping performance is forecast to weaken in 2026 as lower freight rates erode profits. Tanker shipping, especially crude carriers, is expected to perform well, while dry bulk remains weak but stable. LNG shipping and car carriers are projected to stay broadly steady.

Order books have risen moderately across segments, but low scrappage has led to capacity growth outpacing demand. Operational costs are also set to rise under the International Maritime Organization's pending Net Zero framework, increasing pressure on shipping companies' cost structures.