Rising demand for AI components and cross-border e-commerce goods will keep ex-Asia air cargo under pressure in 2026, reports New York's Journal of Commerce.

The construction of large AI data centres worldwide will require huge volumes of semiconductors and other high-tech products. Rapid delivery needs will continue to drive Asian e-commerce shipments into air freight, adding strain during peak periods.

China's platforms Shein, Temu and TikTok dominated transpacific air cargo in 2024 and 2025. But when the Trump administration eliminated the de minimis exemption for Chinese goods under US$800, more than two million daily shipments began stacking up at US airports. After a brief reinstatement, the exemption was removed permanently in May, causing China-US traffic to plummet.

Losses were offset by rising volumes from Southeast Asia to the US, and from Asia to Latin America and Europe. Airlines shifted freighters to those trades, while China's exports began recovering in the fourth quarter.

Looking ahead, semiconductors from Taiwan and Vietnam will boost volumes alongside entrenched e-commerce demand. Airlines face challenges from volatile US trade policy and capacity adjustments, keeping freighters full on major Asia routes.

In the longer term, new freighters and increased belly space in passenger aircraft could create excess capacity. Supply-demand imbalances may pressure profitability, prompting carriers to favour shorter, flexible contracts. Forwarders are expected to compete aggressively for market share, adding downward pressure on rates.