Global air cargo volumes rose seven per cent year on year in January, though spot rates slipped, reported Washington DC's Supply Chain Dive.

Xeneta said the increase was the strongest since January 2025, driven by an earlier Lunar New Year. Chief Airfreight Officer Niall van de Wouw cautioned that the rise was calendar-related rather than a sign of stronger demand.

The global average spot rate fell one per cent to US$2.56 per kilogram. Rates from Northeast Asia to the US dipped three per cent year on year to $4.28 per kilogram, while Southeast Asia to North America fell 12 per cent to $4.88 per kilogram.

E-commerce exports from China to the US continue to decline under the de minimis ban. Volumes dropped more than 50 per cent for the third consecutive month in December, with 2025 exports down 28 per cent compared with the prior year. China-based platforms are expanding in Europe to offset higher US import costs.

The Q1 outlook remains uncertain. Xeneta said a possible return of ocean shipping to the Red Sea and Suez Canal could affect air freight in Q2. Maersk resumed service in January, but CMA CGM rerouted cargo around the Cape of Good Hope. A rapid shift back to ocean transport is unlikely in the near term.