Global air cargo demand rose seven per cent year on year in January, boosted by an earlier Lunar New Year, but China's e-commerce exports fell for the first time since 2022, reports Xeneta.

Chargeable weight growth outpaced capacity, which rose five per cent, lifting the dynamic load factor one point to 57 per cent. Spot rates averaged US$2.56 per kg, down one per cent year on year, the smallest decline in months.

Xeneta air freight officer Niall van de Wouw cautioned that January's strength was calendar-related rather than a sign of underlying demand. He noted that weaker currencies can distort global averages when converted back into dollars.

China Customs data showed low-value and e-commerce exports down nine per cent in December, the first decline in four years. Shipments to the US fell more than 50 per cent for a third month, with full-year 2025 exports down 28 per cent.

China-to-Europe growth slowed sharply, rising eight per cent in December compared with 54 per cent over the first 11 months. Excluding Russia, volumes fell 23 per cent. Analysts warned that continued weakness could affect freighter conversion plans reliant on e-commerce demand.

Regulatory changes, including US de minimis bans and proposed EU fees, are adding friction to cross-border trade. Xeneta said airlines and forwarders are closely monitoring the slowdown in e-commerce, which accounts for up to a quarter of global volumes.

Ocean shipping developments may also influence demand. Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd have resumed limited Suez Canal transits under naval protection, but uncertainty persists. Analysts said disruption could keep some shippers reliant on air freight in the near term.

Spot rates fell sharply on Southeast Asia-North America and Southeast Asia-Europe lanes, down more than 10 per cent year on year. Northeast Asia-Europe dropped six per cent, while Transatlantic westbound rates rose three per cent, partly due to temporary US tariff threats.