Close to half of air cargo forwarder volumes were bought on the spot market in Q4 2025 as shippers opted for short-term deals, reports London's Supply Chain Dive.

Xeneta said one-year contracts accounted for only 24 per cent of new agreements in the quarter, down 20 points from Q3, as buyers avoided locking in rates during peak season. The figure was still eight points higher year on year.

Spot rates continued to decline in December, averaging US$2.83 per kilogram, four per cent lower year on year. Rates from Southeast Asia to North America fell six per cent to $5.87 per kilogram, while Northeast Asia to North America dropped to $5.15 per kilogram.

Global air cargo volumes rose six per cent in December, pushing overall 2025 demand up four per cent in chargeable weight. Xeneta�� Niall van de Wouw said shippers shifted from other modes to air freight for speed and reliability, despite trade volatility under US policy changes.

Van de Wouw noted demand was supported by flows of high-value goods and AI-driven logistics, but warned of weaker signals for Chinese cross-border e-commerce. He forecast a two to three per cent rise in volumes in 2026, but said slower e-commerce growth and falling consumer purchasing power could weigh on the market.

He added that volatility and crises may again benefit the industry, but fundamentals point to a downward trend. Shippers are expected to seek lower rates as demand softens in early 2026.