The injection of larger vessels into Asia-Europe and Asia-Mediterranean trades has cascaded smaller ships into transatlantic and Latin America corridors, spreading structural overcapacity to secondary lanes, reports New York's Journal of Commerce.

More than 1.7 million TEU of new tonnage are due in 2026, mostly in the 15,000-to-24,000-TEU range, but vessels in the sub-5,000-TEU segment - vital for feeder and intra-regional networks - are aging rapidly, according to Sea-Intelligence Maritime Analysis.

The displacement of tonnage was driven by Red Sea diversions, Panama Canal drought and alliance reshuffling in early 2025. New 24,000-TEU ships on Asia-North Europe routes pushed 14,000 to 20,000-TEU vessels into Asia-Mediterranean services.

By mid-2025, new alliances stabilised operations, with Mediterranean-North America East Coast absorbing 127,686 TEU and Asia-East Coast South America gaining 112,998 TEU. Analysts said Asia-ECSA became a preferred destination for mid-size tonnage.

Consultancy MDS Transmodal warned that returning to Red Sea transits could expose imbalances, with oversupply of large ships and shortages of small ones. More than 60 per cent of sub-5,000-TEU vessels are at least 25 years old, yet new orders remain scarce.

Alphaliner noted 593 vessels in the sub-5,000-TEU bracket are 25 years or older, 13 per cent of the fleet. Carriers have begun ordering smaller units such as Bangkokmax and Chittagongmax classes to rejuvenate ageing segments.