The National Retail Federation (NRF) forecasts import volumes will remain in decline through at least the first quarter of 2026, despite expectations for record holiday sales. The trade group cited uncertainty over tariffs and trade policy as the main factors, reports Fort Lauderdale's Maritime Executive.

NRF vice president Jonathan Gold said stores are well stocked for the holiday season, but warned that trade policy uncertainty clouds the outlook for 2026.

The federation noted that imports rose 3.7 per cent in the first half of 2025 as retailers rushed shipments ahead of tariff increases. Moves by the administration to ease tariffs on food products and reach agreement with China moderated the decline in late 2025.

NRF projects holiday sales will top US$1 trillion for the first time, up between 3.7 and 4.2 per cent from 2024. However, import volumes remain below last year's levels, with the fourth quarter forecast at 5.86 million TEU, down 10 per cent from 2024.

Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said rising tariffs are weakening cargo demand and the impact is expected to continue into the first half of 2026.

Global Port Tracker projects December imports at 1.88 million TEU, the slowest month of 2025 and down 12 per cent from December 2024. The full year forecast is 25.2 million TEU, off 1.4 per cent from 2024.

NRF expects January imports at two million TEU, marking the first month-on-month increase in six months but still 10.3 per cent lower year over year. February is forecast at 1.86 million TEU, March at 1.79 million TEU, and April at 1.97 million TEU, all down compared with 2025. The first quarter of 2026 is projected to be more than 12 per cent lower than a year earlier.