Air freight peak season from Asia began unevenly in October, with strong e-commerce growth to Europe offset by a sharp decline in demand from the US. The shift reflects the impact of US tariff changes and regulatory pressures, reported London's S&P Global.

Data from Xeneta showed China's cross-border e-commerce sales were flat in October after 27 months of growth above 40 per cent. Shipments to Europe surged 47 per cent, but volumes to the US fell 51 per cent following the removal of duty-free access for low-value goods.

The International Air Transport Association reported Asia-North America cargo volumes declined 1.4 per cent year over year in October, marking the sixth consecutive monthly drop. Asia-Europe demand rose 11.7 per cent, prompting airlines to shift freighter capacity to the route.

IATA director-general Willie Walsh said the growth pattern shows supply chains are adapting to US tariffs, with double-digit gains on Asia-Europe, intra-Asia and Middle East-Europe trades contrasting with North America's contraction.

Xeneta's Niall van de Wouw warned the tariff impact could intensify in 2026 as US shippers replenish inventories and pass costs to consumers. He said the trend is unsettling but not yet severely affecting US demand.

E-commerce flows into Europe may also face pressure from new EU de-minimis reforms set for 2026. Mr Van de Wouw forecast global air cargo growth of only 2 to 3 per cent next year, with supply expected to outpace demand and weigh on rates.