Container lines injected more vessels into the transatlantic in 2025, pushing capacity beyond market demand and leaving carriers with little leverage to raise rates, reports New York's Journal of Commerce.

US importers frontloaded cargo ahead of threatened 30 per cent tariffs on EU goods, driving a March surge with imports from North Europe peaking at 219,560 TEU, up 14.3 per cent year on year. But volumes slowed after a July trade deal capped tariffs at 15 per cent, leaving growth through November at just 2.5 per cent.

Carriers added capacity with larger ships. Mediterranean Shipping Co (MSC) extended its Asia-Mediterranean Dragon service to the transatlantic using vessels averaging 13,000 TEU, compared with the previous maximum of 9,600 TEU. Average ship size on the route rose to 6,200 TEU in the third quarter from 5,500 TEU at the start of the year.

Spot rates from North Europe to the US east coast have been stuck at US$1,400 per FEU since November, down from $2,000 in March. Carriers plan record deployments of 435,000 TEU in January and 390,000 TEU in February, according to Copenhagen's eeSea.

EU member states have been slow to approve the new trade agreement, citing concerns it favours the US. Analysts warn congestion from resumed Suez Canal transits could spill into European ports and disrupt transatlantic flows. Importers are advised to build inventories to mitigate risks.