Executives warn liner shipping faces a fragile outlook heading into 2026, with oversupply, tariffs and regulatory uncertainty weighing on prospects, reports Singapore's Splash 247.

The year began with carriers avoiding the Red Sea despite Houthi assurances, diverting via Africa and absorbing 10 per cent of Asia-Europe capacity. The EU's emission trading scheme took effect while Fuel EU Maritime rules loom. Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd launched their Gemini Alliance, but demand failed to rise.

University College London researchers said new ships must run on clean fuels, forcing retrofits or scrapping of vessels built since 2016. Carriers ordered nearly 500 ships in 2025, including Evergreen's ten 24,000-TEU giants for delivery from 2027.

US policy added volatility. Tariffs on China swung from 55 per cent to 140 per cent before settling at 30 per cent, sending freight rates on Shanghai-US west coast routes on a roller coaster. Rates plunged to US$1,431 in October before rebounding to $2,958 in November.

The port of Los Angeles saw throughput peak at 1.02 million TEU in July before falling to 0.85 million TEU in October. Director Gene Seroka said China's share of cargo dropped from 80 pc in 2018 to 45 pc by mid-2025.

UNCTAD (United Nations Conference on Trade and Development) reported global trade will exceed $35 trillion in 2025, up seven per cent. Growth was strongest in Asia and Africa, while Europe's exports rose six per cent. US tariff policy narrowed the trade deficit and encouraged nearshoring.

The containership orderbook remains the main concern. Deliveries of 242 ships added 2.04 million TEU, lifting the fleet to 31 million TEU. Carriers cut capacity, slowed steaming and blanked sailings, yet average Freightos rates fell 55 per cent to $1,934 by December.

Shanghai-Los Angeles rates dropped 67 per cent to $1,964, Shanghai-Rotterdam fell 56 per cent to $2,449, and Shanghai-Med declined 41 per cent to $3,342. Europe-North America rates fell 32 per cent to $1,537. Executives warn confused policies and costly energy transition could deepen fragility.