A shift in transpacific air freight flows is emerging after the US removed the de minimis exemption for low-value goods in May, with imports from Taiwan and Vietnam rising sharply to offset a decline in China-US traffic, reported London's S&P Global.

Data from Trade and Transport Group shows de minimis traffic fell significantly while regular air cargo increased. Frederic Horst, managing director of the consultancy, said the decline in China-US traffic has been more than offset by imports from Taiwan and Vietnam, mainly linked to computers, parts and industrial equipment.

US imports of air cargo from China fell 10.1 per cent year on year in the first nine months of 2025. Imports from Northeast Asia rose 36.4 per cent, while Southeast Asian origins were up almost 50 per cent. Taiwan shipments jumped 91 per cent, Vietnam rose 80 per cent and Thailand increased more than 40 per cent.

Taiwan-based Dimerco Express Group urged shippers to factor the changes into 2026 plans. Chairwoman Catherine Chien said direct China-US e-commerce flows have decreased, with more cargo routed via alternative hubs and forward-stocking models, diversifying trade lanes. She added demand for high-tech, AI-related and e-commerce shipments continues to drive growth.

Mr Horst noted regular consignments above US$2,000 rose 16.5 per cent in the first nine months, while overall inbound air cargo traffic to the US fell 2.5 per cent. Rotate data shows freighter operators shifted capacity, with direct Southeast Asia-North America capacity up 89 per cent at 102,700 metric tons since May.

Much of Vietnam's air freight is shipped indirectly through hubs in mainland China, Hong Kong, South Korea and Japan, analysts said. Freightos reported China-US rates at a 2025 high above $8/kg, exceeding last year's $7.30/kg peak. The International Air Transport Association expects global air volume growth of 3.1 per cent in 2025 and 2.6 per cent in 2026 despite tariff impacts.