Global trade in goods and services is projected to exceed US$35 trillion in 2025, with growth of about 7 per cent, reported Saint Petersburg's Port News.

The UNCTAD (United Nations Conference on Trade and Development) said this represents an increase of roughly $2.2 trillion over 2024, despite softer momentum late in the year. Trade expanded 2.5 per cent between July and September, with goods up nearly 2 per cent and services about 4 per cent.

For the final quarter of 2024, UNCTAD expects goods to grow 0.5 per cent and services 2 per cent, implying annual increases of $1.5 trillion and $750 billion respectively. The agency noted a shift from price-driven to volume-led growth as goods prices ease.

East Asia and Africa recorded the strongest gains. East Asia's exports rose about 9 per cent, supported by a 10 per cent increase in intra-regional trade, while Africa's imports climbed 10 per cent and exports 6 per cent. China, the Republic of Korea, Brazil and South Africa were highlighted as key drivers.

Manufacturing output traded globally rose 10 per cent year-on-year, with electronics up 14 per cent. Agriculture grew 8 per cent in the third quarter, including cereals and fruit-and-vegetable exports, each up 11 per cent. Energy-related trade weakened as fossil-fuel values fell, while critical-minerals trade dropped sharply. Motor-vehicle trade declined 4 per cent, with hybrids rising and electric-vehicle values slipping slightly.

UNCTAD reported renewed momentum in friendshoring and nearshoring, with trade between politically close partners exceeding pre-pandemic levels. Goods-trade imbalances remain high, with China's surplus up $30 billion year-on-year and the United States recording a slight narrowing of its deficit.

Looking ahead to 2026, UNCTAD anticipates slower growth due to weak global activity, fragmentation, policy uncertainty and elevated costs. High debt in developing economies and supply-chain restructuring are expected to weigh on trade.

Supportive factors include expanding South-South trade, stronger consumer demand in emerging markets, rapid growth in digital and AI industries and lower borrowing costs as central banks cut rates. UNCTAD said these will cushion, but not fully offset, the slowdown.

UNCTAD, established in 1964 and headquartered in Geneva, is a permanent UN body with 195 member states. It conducts analytical work, consensus-building and technical assistance on trade, investment and technology.