Air cargo demand growth is expected to slow in 2026 after a record run, but industry consultant Rotate sees reasons for optimism, reported London's Air Cargo News.

Ryan Keyrouse, chief executive of Rotate, told the TIACA Air Cargo Forum in Abu Dhabi that 26 consecutive months of growth were unlikely to continue. He said improved reliability in ocean shipping would shift volumes back from air, but US sales outpacing inventories and record freighter utilisation were encouraging signs.

Cargo aircraft are flying an average of 15 block hours per day, indicating strong demand. Mr Keyrouse added that uncertainty over US tariffs could disrupt supply chains, which historically benefits air cargo.

Longer term, Rotate expects air cargo to grow about three per cent annually in line with GDP, with South Asia and Southeast Asia outperforming. Capacity is forecast to rise 6-7 per cent in 2026 as more widebody passenger and freighter aircraft enter service.

Mr Keyrouse said 2025 demand was 3.9 per cent higher than 2024, driven by front loading ahead of tariffs, strong US sales and shifting supply chains. Demand from China to the US fell 29 per cent between May and July, but volumes from other Asia Pacific countries rose 48 per cent, offsetting the decline.