Ongoing instability in the Red Sea and Suez Canal continues to disrupt global freight planning, with carriers cautious about reinstating the traditional route despite industry discussions, reports Mumbai Logistics Update Africa. Analysts warn that even a ceasefire may not guarantee safe passage, keeping markets unstable.

Taiwan's Dimerco said the outlook hinges on two unknowns: inventory restocking patterns and the return of vessels to the Suez Canal. If carriers resume the route, capacity could rise and rates ease. Continued diversions via the Cape of Good Hope would mean longer transit times and equipment shortages.

Asia-Pacific air freight remains active, with strong transpacific demand driven by e-commerce shipments to the United States after Black Friday and Thanksgiving. High-volume flows from Southeast Asia are filling hubs in Taipei, Hong Kong, Incheon, Narita and Singapore, while China-Mexico demand has also increased.

Intra-Asia cargo movements are busy, supporting production across China, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam and Malaysia. Airlines expect 2026 BSA rates to remain near current levels even if the market softens, with regional tightness affecting India's capacity through transit points.

India's air freight market is strong for electronics, garments and e-commerce exports, but capacity to the United States is tight as most shipments route through Europe. Winter fog and congestion at northern hubs add pressure, while limited freighters and restricted belly space keep conditions stiff.

Southeast Asia reports rising rates, with Vietnam expecting limited space before Christmas and the Philippines noting regular rates no longer guarantee capacity. Singapore is also tight as shippers rush quarter-end volumes. North America faces congestion in Chicago, while Canada reports fewer direct flights to Asia.

Weather disruptions in China earlier this season shifted capacity to long-haul routes, tightening Southeast Asia lanes. The grounding of MD-11F aircraft after a crash has further reduced global freighter capacity, especially on e-commerce routes, likely pushing rates higher through December. Exporters in India are advised to plan early and prepare for longer transit times.