Container trade flows to North America show a growing imbalance, with imports far outweighing exports, reports Copenhagen's Sea-Intelligence. Based on Container Trade Statistics data, the imbalance ratio across six deep-sea trades reached 60 per cent in September 2025, up from 40-50 per cent before the pandemic.

On the transpacific, volumes hit 2.4 million TEU in September, with an imbalance ratio between 3.5 and 4.3. This means North America imported nearly four times as many containers as it exported. The transatlantic trade recorded 630,000 TEU, with imbalance rising to 1.7-2.2 compared with 1.6-1.8 previously.

Trade with South and Central America totalled 440,000 TEU and remained relatively stable. Only Sub-Saharan Africa and Oceania trades showed reduced imbalance, but from the perspective of worsening North America's import imbalance.

Analysts said the imbalance increases costs for repositioning empty containers and adds operational complexity. Currently, 41 per cent of containers move empty, compared with one-third six years ago.

China's export surge has contributed to the imbalance. Export volumes grew 20 per cent year on year in the past two years, while domestic consumption remained weak at 39 per cent of GDP compared with 68 per cent in the US. Strong exports are absorbing vessel capacity and equipment, straining logistics networks.

Overcapacity risks persist as vessel scrapping remains limited. Only eight ships totalling 4,130 TEU were scrapped in 2025, according to the New York's Journal of Commerce. Carriers are expected to rely on scrapping, idling and slow steaming to manage supply-demand pressures.