China's growing export-import gap is soaking up containership capacity and equipment, reports London's S&P Global.

Manufacturers have expanded markets in Europe, Latin America, Africa and the Middle East despite US tariffs of about 47 per cent. Container Trade Statistics data show China's export-to-import ratio rose from 3.12 to 3.29 over two years.

Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc said strong export momentum is absorbing new capacity but increasing trade imbalance will raise costs and reduce industry efficiency. He noted more than 2.2 million TEU of new tonnage delivered this year have not worsened overcapacity as expected.

Global demand growth is forecast at 2.5 to 3.5 per cent in 2026, down from 4.5 to 5.5 per cent in 2025, according to BIMCO. Container capacity is set to rise 7.3 per cent this year compared with 2024, and 3.1 per cent in 2026.

China's exports grew 20 per cent year on year in the first nine months, while domestic consumption remains weak at 39 per cent of GDP in 2023, compared with 68 per cent in the US. October manufacturing and retail sales slowed to their weakest pace in a year.

Sea-Intelligence reported 41 per cent of containers now move empty, up from one-third six years ago. CEO Alan Murphy said the Red Sea crisis has lengthened sailing distances for empties, raising handling costs and equipment needs.

Mr Clerc said the imbalance may have limited staying power, with industry tools such as scrapping, idling and slow steaming available. BIMCO noted only eight vessels totalling 4,130 TEU have been scrapped so far in 2025, leaving pent-up demand for retirements.