Crude and condensate volumes at sea reached a record 1.24 billion barrels in the week to October 17, as global supply surged, reported Bloomberg.

The figure, up from 1.22 billion barrels the previous week, reflects rising output from OPEC+ members and non-members, especially in the Americas. Guyana has started production from a new offshore field, while US output reached 13.63 million barrels a day.

Traders warn that a long-anticipated surplus is emerging, with forecasts suggesting it could reach 4 million barrels a day early next year. Oil prices fell 0.8 per cent, bringing the year-to-date decline to 18 per cent.

Eight OPEC+ members raised their collective production target by nearly 2.5 million barrels a day between March and September. Actual output rose by over two million barrels a day, with Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Russia contributing 1.77 million barrels a day.

Most of the additional supply is heading to Asia, especially China, with voyages from the Middle East taking about a month and those from Russia often twice as long. Vortexa's data excludes oil in floating storage, defined as cargo on vessels stationary for at least seven days.

Guyana shipped its first cargo of the Golden Arrowhead grade in August, with output expected to plateau at 250,000 barrels a day. A supertanker carrying Guyanese crude is en route to China, its first such voyage since May. Two Indian refiners have also purchased Guyanese oil, the first since November 2021.