China's Premier Li Qiang signalled a shift in growth expectations at the China International Import Expo in Shanghai, projecting GDP to reach RMB170 trillion by 2030, implying annual growth of around 4 per cent, reports Hong Kong's China Economic Review.

A newly published study guide on the 15th five-year plan confirmed a 4.17 per cent annual growth target to meet the 2035 economic milestone. This marks a departure from the previously implied five per cent benchmark.

While four per cent growth is strong for a major economy, analysts remain sceptical due to persistent transparency issues. Market sentiment suggests a lack of confidence in official figures and policy clarity.

The 4th Plenum and the 15th FYP were expected to provide direction, but failed to deliver a compelling narrative. Despite a buoyant stock market, insiders say trading relies heavily on unofficial cues and policy speculation, with limited ties to the real economy.

Nonetheless, consistent central policy benefits large firms in planning and investment. Challenges persist in aligning national directives with local execution, often leading to inefficiencies, as seen in the EV and AI sectors.

Meanwhile, political developments in the US, including a recent mini-election, may influence China's strategic outlook. Observers note the contrast between systems, with China's bureaucratic consistency facing off against the US's transparent but volatile political landscape.