US retailers expect container imports to fall more steeply in 2026 as early holiday stocking and tariff concerns continue to distort shipping patterns, reports New York's FreightWaves.

The National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates said September container volumes at US ports reached 2.1 million TEU, down 9.3 per cent from August and 7.4 per cent year-on-year. October is forecast at 1.99 million TEU, November at 1.85 million and December at 1.75 million, marking declines of 11.5, 14.4 and 17.9 per cent respectively.

The NRF said November and December would be the slowest months of the year, following July's peak of 2.39 million TEU. December would be the weakest since March 2023, when volumes hit 1.62 million TEU.

The slowdown follows record volumes in early 2024, when shippers moved goods ahead of a dock strike at east coast ports in October.

Despite import declines, the NRF expects 2025 holiday sales to rise between 3.7 and 4.2 per cent year-on-year, topping US$1 trillion. NRF vice president Jonathan Gold said retailers mitigated tariff impacts by frontloading shipments and absorbing costs.

Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said fluctuating US-China tariff policies have made long-term planning difficult for importers and carriers. He forecast a modest decline in imports this year and a sharper drop in early 2026.

While retail pressures persist, container shipping has shown resilience. Carriers continue to order new vessels, and China may build a 27,000-TEU ship, the largest ever. Maersk executives met Suez Canal officials to discuss resuming Red Sea operations, suspended since Houthi attacks began in late 2023.

First-half container volumes reached 12.53 million TEU, up 3.7 per cent year-on-year. Full-year totals are projected at 24.9 million TEU, down 2.3 per cent from 2024. January to March 2026 volumes are forecast at 1.98, 1.85 and 1.79 million TEU respectively, each showing double-digit declines.