Global air cargo volumes rose four per cent year on year in October, exceeding expectations, but analysts warn of a cooling market and tougher conditions ahead, reports Mumbai's STAT Trade Times.

Xeneta said the growth came despite reduced front-loading due to higher tariffs and the US de minimis ban. However, October marked the sixth straight month of falling spot rates, down three per cent to $2.58 per kg. Contract rates dropped eight per cent to $2.31 per kg, reflecting caution among forwarders and carriers.

Niall van de Wouw, Xeneta's Chief Airfreight Officer, said the market is shifting in favour of shippers. He flagged the six per cent drop in Europe-North America volumes as a potential warning for global trade, despite a four per cent rise in spot rates on the corridor.

Global airfreight capacity rose five per cent in October, outpacing demand for the second time this year. This imbalance has kept pressure on rates and load factors, signaling a cooling environment.

Asia Pacific-Europe demand rose 11 per cent from August, but this was below the 16 per cent gain seen last year. Spot rates rose five per cent, also down from nine per cent in 2024.

China's e-commerce exports to Europe surged 62 per cent in September, while shipments to the US fell 34 per cent. Freighter capacity has shifted toward Asia-Europe, softening rate declines on that corridor.

Spot rates from Northeast and Southeast Asia to Europe rose six and seven per cent respectively between August and October. Backhaul rates from North America to Northeast Asia climbed 11 per cent.

Van de Wouw expects forwarders to focus on cost control as revenue growth slows. He warned that competition for market share will intensify, putting further pressure on rates into 2026.

He added that while tariffs have temporarily boosted air freight, limited growth in general freight is lowering expectations for next year.