The global shipping industry is facing heightened volatility due to geopolitical tensions and new tariffs, prompting the UN Trade and Development agency to lower its maritime trade growth forecast for 2025, reports Reuters.

UNCTAD now expects overall maritime trade volume to grow just 0.5 per cent annually, with containerised trade rising slightly faster at 1.4 per cent. The revision reflects weak Chinese demand, subdued industrial activity in major economies and a more complex global trade environment.

The agency said new trade policies and tariffs are disrupting supply chains. Russia's war in Ukraine has complicated navigation in the Black Sea, while Middle East conflict has forced vessels to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope due to Red Sea disruptions.

The Strait of Hormuz, which handles 34 per cent of global seaborne oil exports, has also faced recent risks amid rising tensions between Iran and Israel.

UNCTAD Secretary-General Rebeca Grynspan said the scale of disruption rivals the 1967 closure of the Suez Canal. She urged the maritime sector to rethink operations to cope with fragile supply chains and geopolitical insecurity.

The report noted that average shipping distances have increased from 4,831 miles in 2018 to 5,245 miles in 2024, reflecting shifts in trade routes and global politics. Ms Grynspan described this trend as a shift from geography to "geoeconomics".

Looking ahead to 2026-2030, UNCTAD projects annual growth of 2 per cent in total seaborne trade and 2.3 per cent in containerised volumes.