Air cargo volumes to the US have shifted sharply away from China due to tariffs and the end of the de minimis exemption, consultant Marco Bloemen told the Caspian Air Cargo Summit. The changes have redirected trade to other regions, reports London's Air Cargo News.

E-commerce shipments from China to the US dropped 40 per cent in July compared with April. China's share of the global e-commerce air cargo market to the US fell from 31 per cent to 15 per cent, while Europe and other regions gained.

China-Europe volumes rose to 27 per cent of the market, up from 21 per cent last year. Transshipment hubs such as Hungary and Belgium saw rapid growth, alongside gains in the Middle East and South America.

Overall China-US air cargo volumes fell 19 per cent year-on-year between April and July. In contrast, Taiwan and Vietnam saw surges of 119 and 93 per cent respectively, driven by computer hardware, laptops and clothing.

Vietnam has overtaken China as the US' top laptop supplier. India now leads in smartphone exports to the US. Italy and France also saw growth as fashion firms frontloaded shipments ahead of tariffs.

Airline cargo capacity has responded, with double-digit increases on Asia-Europe and Middle East routes. Transpacific and transatlantic capacity remained flat.

Bloemen noted that yield imbalances have widened. Asia-Europe freight now costs 2.6 times more than the return leg, up from 1.6 times in 2023. Transpacific routes show similar trends.

Total airfreight volumes rose 5.2 per cent year-on-year, supported by frontloading and an 18 per cent rise in e-commerce demand.

Bloemen warned of future capacity shortages. Since 2019, belly capacity has declined 3 per cent and freighter capacity has grown only 3 per cent. Aircraft deliveries remain slow, with just 68 widebody passenger units and 27 freighters delivered in the first half of this year.