CONVERSION numbers are expected to fall again this year fuelled by overcapacity in the narrowbody market, feedstock limitations and weaker demand levels.

During an IBA webinar on the future of the freighter market, Mike Yeomans, director of advisory and consulting, said the aviation advisory firm expected cargo demand growth this year to moderate to 5 per cent year on year in cargo tonne km terms down from 11 per cent last year.

Meanwhile, the cargo load factor is expected to decline slightly to around 45 per cent, reports London's Air Cargo News.

However, there were further downside risks to the demand forecasts due to the potential impact of US tariffs on China and the potential withdrawal of the de minimis exemption. Overcapacity is therefore a concern for 2025, he said.

On the supply side, Johnathan McDonald, manager classics and cargo aircraft, said the narrowbody freighter market is expected to be affected by overcapacity due to the high number of conversions carried out in the post-pandemic era.

IBA figures show that in 2023 more than 120 narrowbody aircraft were converted into freighters. Last year this fell to just over seventy aircraft.

Overall, he said that the next few years are expected to be quiet for the narrowbody market as feedstock is difficult to acquire and there is overcapacity in the market.

The widebody conversion market is also being affected by the limited feedstock of the Boeing 767-300ER aircraft, which has been the most popular widebody conversion for a number of years.

Conversion numbers for the 767-300 fell from almost 45 in 2023 to just over 20 aircraft in 2024.

Meanwhile, conversions of the Airbus A330-300 increased in 2024 as more conversion lines came online. There is a possibility that the number of A330-300 conversions could exceed that of the 767 this year, Mr McDonald said.