US container imports are expected to decline steadily through the remainder of 2025 and into 2026, driven by reciprocal tariffs and trade policy uncertainty, reported Fort Lauderdale's Maritime Executive.

The National Retail Federation and Descartes Systems Group say retailers front-loaded shipments ahead of tariff hikes, peaking in July. Monthly volumes are now forecast to fall, with August down 1.7 per cent year-on-year to 2.28 million TEU, according to NRF's Global Port Tracker.

July volumes rose 20 per cent over June, making it the second-busiest month on record. Imports surged ahead of the August start of reciprocal tariffs and a postponed deadline for tariffs on China.

Descartes measured August container imports at 2.52 million TEU, up 1.6 per cent year-on-year. However, it noted a nearly four per cent decline compared to July, citing "fast-shifting trade policy" as a key factor.

The steepest drops were in aluminium, apparel and footwear, with furniture, toys and electrical machinery also falling. Descartes warned that policy remains unpredictable.

Imports face further pressure after Trump raised tariffs on India to 50 per cent in late August. The China trade deal deadline was extended to November 10, adding uncertainty as retailers enter peak season.

NRF revised its September forecast upward to 2.12 million TEU from 1.83 million TEU. However, it expects volumes to fall to just over 1.7 million TEU in November and December.

For 2025, NRF projects total imports of 24.7 million TEU, down 3.4 per cent from 2024, though still the fourth-highest annual total on record.

The first forecast for 2026 shows January imports at 1.8 million TEU, a 19 per cent drop from January 2025.