US container ports are bracing for a dramatic drop in cargo volumes as unprecedented tariffs on all trading partners threaten to reshape maritime trade patterns, reports Ventura, California's gCaptain.

The National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates' latest Global Port Tracker report suggests import cargo volumes could plummet 20 per cent in the second half of 2025.

The stark forecast comes after US President Donald Trump imposed a minimum 10 per cent tariff on all US trading partners, with "reciprocal" tariffs reaching up to 50 per cent for numerous nations.

The situation with China has escalated further, with retaliatory measures pushing the base rate to 104 per cent for national emergency tariffs alone.

"Tariffs are taxes on US. importers ultimately paid by consumers," warns Jonathan Gold, NRF vice president.

"They are creating anxiety and uncertainty for American businesses and families alike with the speed at which they are being implemented and stacked upon each other."

The impact is expected to be swift and severe. May 2025 is projected to mark the end of 19 consecutive months of year-on-year growth, with volumes dropping to 1.66 million TEU, a 20.5 per cent decline.

June could see volumes fall to 1.57 million TEU, the lowest since February 2023, while July and August projections show continued declines of 27 per cent and 26.8 per cent respectively.

Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, emphasised the unprecedented uncertainty in the market. "In this environment of complete uncertainty, our forecast for import cargo will be subject to significant adjustments over the coming months," he said.

"At present, we expect to see imports begin to decline by May and that they will drop dramatically during the remainder of the year."