THE ongoing trade tensions between some of the world's largest economies may have begun to impact international e-commerce volumes, as reflected in February's global air cargo market data, reports Singapore Payload Asia.

According to the latest analysis by Xeneta, spot rates from Shanghai to the U.S. fell 29 per cent month-on-month to $3.23 per kg.

While seasonal factors such as the earlier Lunar New Year and a typical post-holiday e-commerce slowdown played a role, the decline coincides with the US temporarily removing the de minimis exemption on Chinese shipments.

This may be an early sign that regulatory and political decisions are starting to affect the air cargo market.

"When the e-commerce boom took off, it very quickly clogged up the Hong Kong and southern China market because of so much outbound demand. So, the e-commerce market started to venture eastwards to Shanghai, even though it was less desirable due to additional cost," said Xeneta's air cargo chief Niall van de Wouw.

"If a fall in e-commerce volumes means there's currently more available capacity to do business out of Hong Kong and southern China again, we would expect Shanghai to be the first market to feel this impact, and that's what we saw in February. This may be short-term, but the uncertainty around e-commerce is impacting the market."