当前位置：新闻动态
Increasing spending on services may help ease US port congestion: TPM21
来源：Shipping News Headlines 编辑：编辑部 发布：2021/03/05 09:13:20
THE chief economist at IHS Markit, Nariman Behravesh, says the rate of easing US port congestion hinges on how quickly consumers return to spending on services such as travel and entertainment.
Speaking at JOC's virtual TPM21, Mr Berhravesh, says the quicker the US gets the Covid-19 pandemic under control with more people being vaccinated, the earlier the backup of containers and freight in US ports will diminish.
"The pandemic, especially rising infection rates, is directly correlated with port congestion," Mr Behravesh said. Simply put, the longer people feel constrained to stay at home, the longer they will continue to spend money on physical goods, sending more imports to US ports.
"By the second half of the year, we'll see significant easing of pressure on container traffic and ports, but I don't think we'll see a lot in the first half," Mr Behravesh said. "People aren't going to be that comfortable spending on services such as travel and entertainment."
Mr Behravesh doesn't believe the US import surge seen in the second half of 2020 will repeat itself. "The [current] surge won't be sustained," he said. In general, global trade is not accelerating at the pace it did in the late 2000s, when it represented about 25 per cent of global GDP, he said.
However, the US economy will rebound strongly from the recession this year, especially in the second half, with US real gross domestic product (GDP) rising 5.7 per cent in 2021. Mr Behravesh's outlook is for a gradual increase in spending on services by US consumers, reports IHS Media.
That should reduce congestion at US ports and lead to a more normal year in 2022, he said. "Assuming we get half the population vaccinated by the fall, I think that's a big enough change that we'll start to see improvement. Early in the fourth quarter is what I'm looking for."
But he warned that the coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) remains the "starting point" for any conversation on economic growth. "The reality is the virus and its new mutations and the slow rollout of the vaccines are creating some downward risks in the near-term," he said.
The US and China are faring much better than Europe and Japan, which face a second slip into recession as they travel through a sharper "W"-shaped recovery. "The US and China are doing okay in terms of economic activity, but Europe and Japan are not," Mr Behravesh said.
Speaking at JOC's virtual TPM21, Mr Berhravesh, says the quicker the US gets the Covid-19 pandemic under control with more people being vaccinated, the earlier the backup of containers and freight in US ports will diminish.
"The pandemic, especially rising infection rates, is directly correlated with port congestion," Mr Behravesh said. Simply put, the longer people feel constrained to stay at home, the longer they will continue to spend money on physical goods, sending more imports to US ports.
"By the second half of the year, we'll see significant easing of pressure on container traffic and ports, but I don't think we'll see a lot in the first half," Mr Behravesh said. "People aren't going to be that comfortable spending on services such as travel and entertainment."
Mr Behravesh doesn't believe the US import surge seen in the second half of 2020 will repeat itself. "The [current] surge won't be sustained," he said. In general, global trade is not accelerating at the pace it did in the late 2000s, when it represented about 25 per cent of global GDP, he said.
However, the US economy will rebound strongly from the recession this year, especially in the second half, with US real gross domestic product (GDP) rising 5.7 per cent in 2021. Mr Behravesh's outlook is for a gradual increase in spending on services by US consumers, reports IHS Media.
That should reduce congestion at US ports and lead to a more normal year in 2022, he said. "Assuming we get half the population vaccinated by the fall, I think that's a big enough change that we'll start to see improvement. Early in the fourth quarter is what I'm looking for."
But he warned that the coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) remains the "starting point" for any conversation on economic growth. "The reality is the virus and its new mutations and the slow rollout of the vaccines are creating some downward risks in the near-term," he said.
The US and China are faring much better than Europe and Japan, which face a second slip into recession as they travel through a sharper "W"-shaped recovery. "The US and China are doing okay in terms of economic activity, but Europe and Japan are not," Mr Behravesh said.